Following last week’s humiliating loss to the 49ers, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to regroup at home as decent 7-point favorites in the Week 11 odds vs. the Tennessee Titans and their clawless offense.
With Trevor Lawrence and the passing game having a great matchup and the receiving group dealing with more injuries, should bettors be banking on another big game from Christian Kirk who is 8-0 against his longest reception prop since Week 2?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Titans vs. Jaguars on November 19.
Titans vs Jaguars odds
Titans vs Jaguars predictions
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense had a tough game last week facing the 49ers who were also coming out of the bye. In all, the Jags totaled just 221 yards but can easily get back on track against the Tennessee Titans and their Bottom-10 secondary.
Since Week 5, this is a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 24th in success rate vs. the pass and 27th in EPA/dropback. Its best coverage corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, was also inactive last week and was limited at practice to begin the week.
There’s quite a bit of sharp money on Trevor Lawrence odds, but my best play here is Christian Kirk’s Over 58.5 yards.
First off, THE BLITZ doesn’t love Lawrence’s Overs which has a lot to do with the 7-point spread, but it still has Kirk at 62.3 yards which creates a safe floor that is easy to see when checking Kirk’s game logs.
The No. 1 receiver has at least 46 yards in each game since Week 2 and despite the Jaguars putting up just 221 yards of offense last week, Kirk had 102 of those through the air.
He had a 92% route share in that game and had 11 of the team’s 20 targets, pushing his season target share to 24%.
Calvin Ridley was held to two or fewer chances for the second time in three games while No. 3 receiver and return man Jamal Agnew exited the game and was a DNP at practice on Wednesday. Additionally, Zay Jones was inactive last week and has been limited this week. He hasn’t played since Week 5.
With a safe floor and a great matchup vs. a poor secondary that’s faced some poor passing teams over the last three weeks (Buccaneers, Steelers, and Falcons), Kirk will get his targets on Sunday. With how bad Will Levis’ offense has been, the Jags could dominate the possession and total play percentages, too.
For those that also like high hit-rate bets, Kirk has hauled in a pass of at least 26 yards in eight straight games. His longest reception total sits at 21.5 yards.
My best bet: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Titans vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Christian Kirk Over 58.5 receiving yardsJaguars -6.5Will Levis Under 212.5 passing yards
+450 at bet365
This is a full Will Levis fade as there’s a chance if he continues to struggle, a healthy Ryan Tannehill could replace him during this game.
The difference between these two starting quarterbacks is too large to ignore and injuries to the Tennessee offensive line aren’t going to help a run-first team vs. one of the best run defenses in football.
Kirk continues to soak up targets with a banged-up WR group while the Titans have an awful play-from-behind offense.
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